By May 2008 I had predicted Obama would win the presidential election. The basis for my prediction then was my own sense that our socialist-minded population, which I believe to be around 40%, coupled with the haters of the previous administration and the disillusioned with the McCain campaign, who stayed home and didn't vote, would be sufficient to catapult Obama into office.
By September 2008, as the policies of an Obama presidency began to crystallize, I realized that the change the Obama campaign was promising was going to move us away from capitalism and closer to socialism (
see this entry). What I could not imagine then was the speed at which the change would take place.
Having read the new administration's
agenda,
executive orders, and the legislation signed so far by the President, I am willing to predict now that by the end of this administration's first term, 60% of the population will be either completely or largely dependent on government for sustenance. The big one, of course, will be universal health care. The other will be that the government through its national banks (i.e., banks the government owns, like Citi and Bank of America) will hold a large portion of the population's assets (cash and properties).
With such a large percentage of folks getting more from government than ever, this administration's second term will be almost assured. Voters will be afraid to bite the hand that feeds them. What will happen then is difficult for me to imagine; but, I am almost sure that major constitutional changes will be proposed and passed. The first one will be the abolishment of the electoral college and the implementation of new rules for presidential elections. Those will include elections by popular vote and also longer and/or unlimited terms. We will see severe limitations or perhaps a complete ban on firearms. There may also be attempts to control speech.
These and others are the changes, I think, you can count on. The question is: Are they changes we need? I don't think so.
Finally, I hope I fail as a political prognosticator.